Saturday, July 19, 2014

Egypt: Ireland, Germany, Denmark, Italy Relax Warnings Re: Sharm El-Sheikh, But...

According to Daily News Egypt, Ireland has lifted its travel warning for the city of Sharm El-Sheikh and amended the warning issued for the remaining provinces, the Ministry of Tourism reported Saturday (July 19).

This comes only a day after Danish authorities took similar steps regarding its travel advisory for Egypt.

Last week, Germany’s Foreign Ministry in Berlin also lifted travel warnings for Sharm El-Sheikh. 

Following Germany’s announcement, the Italian Foreign Ministry stated that it also has lifted the travel warning for Sharm El-Sheikh and amended the warning for rest of the country.
 
COMMENT: I must admit that without being too terribly suspicious of the lull in at least political unrest of late in Sharm El-Sheikh, it does seem logical to conclude that suddenly so many European nations would be relaxing their warnings on Sharm El-Sheikh...simultaneously?

If anything, it strikes me as no more complicated than certain European nations "were not wanting to be left out of the party."

Unfortunately, "not wanting to be left out," is hardly scientific, yet it is much more connected to group dynamics than to threat analysis.

Having spent the last 35 years assessing security threats in Egypt, specifically, and throughout the world, generally, I've learned through the use of a variety of mathematical formulas that threat analysis is hardly folklore, although most global tourist providers view it as such.

Ahmed Shoukry, chairman of the International Tourism Sector and the Tourism Activation Authority, said other European countries are considering lifting their warnings as well, in light of Germany’s decision.

Following Berlin's announcement, the Italian Foreign Ministry stated that it also had lifted the travel warning for Sharm El-Sheikh and even amended the warning for rest of the country, which is actually a bit "scary."

As most of us know, terrorist capacity, the number of "bad actors," their commitment to their trade-craft and technical skills have much more to do with capacity than with which countries that are and are not warning their citizens to travel to a dangerous country.

Yet, there is a contagiousness in group dynamics that DOES need to be considered. 

For example, why were so many international air carriers still flying in Ukraine airspace when MH Flight 17 was shot out of the air by Russia as it entered the Ukraine?

Clearly, ICAO (the UN International Civil Aviation Organization) was not reading the same intel reports as the FAA was?

Nevertheless, once the Boeing 777 carrying 295 souls for Malaysian Airlines suddenly disappeared from radar scanners, the word was quickly passed to ALL pilots of ALL carriers.

Details are always critical. For instance, below can be found the US Department of State's List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations:

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/04/224566

Now the interesting part. 

Imagine for a moment that those subscribing to the Muslim Brotherhood's doctrine, which includes such groups as Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM), which interestingly had been engaged in ending lives since 2001, yet why was it that ABM was added to the State Department's terror list only on April 9, 2014? Details.

Why was Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM) added to the Department's terror list three years after it began ending lives in 2001? Details.

An even bigger question? Why is it that ABM is on the US State Department's and yet the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been responsible for the deaths of so many Egyptian soldiers and police officers is NOT on the State Department's terror list? Details.

All good questions, but very elusive details...