Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Brazil: MDA Projects Silva Win in 2nd Round 42% to 41%, Respectively

According to The Latin American Tribune, President Dilma Rousseff and former Environment Minister Marina Silva will be the two top vote-getters in Brazil’s October 5 presidential election, according to a poll released Tuesday (September 23) that shows the current head of state with a slight edge going into a likely runoff. 

The survey, conducted by the MDA company for the National Transportation Confederation, indicates that Rousseff would slightly edge out a victory over Silva in the second round by 42% to 41%.

Rousseff’s support in the hypothetical second round fell by three percentage points since the last survey but Silva’s declined by 4.5% compared with MDA’s previous poll, which was carried out 10 days ago.

In the first electoral round, Rousseff would obtain 36% of the votes, while Silva would finish in second place with 27.4% followed by Sen. Aecio Neves with 17.6%.

With regard to MDA’s latest poll, the intention to vote for President Rousseff in the first round fell by 2% while support for Silva declined by 5%.

COMMENT: All voter surveys published over the past two weeks have been pointing to a very narrow victory by Silva, who became the standard-bearer of the centrist PSB in mid-August after the death in a plane crash of the party’s initial presidential candidate, Eduardo Campos.

The survey has an error margin of 2.2% and was conducted during September 20-21 among 2,002 registered voters in 137 cities and all regions of the country.

The survey also evaluated voters’ perceptions of Rousseff’s government, with 37.4% saying their view of her administration was “positive,” 25.1% saying it was “negative” and 36.8% calling it “average.”

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