Saturday, September 13, 2014

Brazil: Rousseff Garners Lead in Polls, President, Silva Face Technical Tie in Run-Off: 43%, 42%

According to The Latin American Tribunesupport for incumbent Dilma Rousseff is on the rise after dipping for several weeks with former Environment Minister Marina Silva’s entry into the Brazilian presidential race, a poll released Friday (September 12) indicates.

The survey, taken by the Ibope Institute on behalf of the National Confederation of Industry, shows Rousseff garnering 39% of the vote in the October 5 balloting, followed by Silva with 31% and Sen. Aecio Neves with 15%.

Earlier results gave Rousseff 37%, compared with 33% for Silva. With no candidate receiving the majority needed for outright victory, the top two vote-getters will face each in an October 26 runoff.

Coming to the runoff, Silva and Rousseff are in a technical tie with 43% and 42%, respectively, according to the poll taken by Ipope this week.

COMMENT: A survey taken last week had Silva winning the runoff by a margin of 46% to 39%. 

The new Ibope poll confirms a comeback by the head of state, already indicated by other studies released this week and which show no headway being made by Silva, who emerged as the favorite when the PSB nominated her as its candidate to replace Eduardo Campos, killed in a plane crash on August 13.

Despite the president’s apparent recovery, Ibope notes that voters who say that under no circumstances will they vote for Rousseff jumped from 31% last week to 42% this week, while the rejection index for Silva rose from 12% to 26% at the same time.

Brazil’s first woman president was elected in 2010 with strong support from outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, founder of the Workers Party and Rousseff’s political mentor.

Silva, an Afro-Brazilian, served as environment minister for part of Lula’s 2003-2011 term. She finished third in the 2010 presidential election as leader of the Green Party.