Thursday, September 4, 2014

Brazil: Silva Projected to Win Presidency Over Rousseff on October 26, 48% to 41%

According to The Latin American Tribune, Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and her main rival, Marina Silva, would tie in the first round if the October presidential vote were held today (September 4) and they would have to face off in a runoff, according to two new voter surveys released on Wednesday (September 3).

According to a survey commissioned by the O Estado de São Paulo daily and Globo television and conducted by Ibope, 37% of those polled said they would vote for Rousseff on October 5, up from 34% who had preferred the president in the August 26 survey, and Silva, a former senator and former environment minister, moved up four points from 29% to 33%.

The other poll, conducted by Datafolha and published by the Folha de São Paulo daily, provided similar results, giving Rousseff 35% support among likely voters to Silva’s 34%.

In the Datafolha survey, Rousseff moved up one percentage point and the Brazilian Socialist Party candidate remained at the same level as in the firm’s most recent poll, which was conducted last Monday.

COMMENT: Given that none of the seven candidates are expected to receive more than 50% of the vote, a second round between the two top vote-getters will--in all likelihood--have to be held on October 26.

When voters were asked about whom they would favor in the hypothetical second round, Silva would win the election, according to both surveys.

Ibope found that Silva would receive 46% of the runoff votes compared with 39% for Rousseff, and Datafolha put the final totals at Silva garnering 48% to the President’s 41%.

Silva, an Afro-Brazilian and a staunch Evangelical Christian, surged in the polls after entering Brazil’s presidential contest less than three weeks ago following the death in a plane crash of the PSB’s original nominee, Eduardo Campos.

She served as environment minister for part of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s 2003-2011 Workers Party government and finished third in the 2010 presidential election as leader of the Green Party.