Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Brazil: Update--New 2nd Round Poll Has Marina Silva Winning 42% to 41% for Rousseff

According to The Latin American Tribune, a new poll of voter intentions for next month’s Brazilian presidential elections has revealed a technical tie between President Dilma Rousseff, who is running for re-election, and the Socialist candidate, Marina Silva in the second round.

Rousseff, of the Workers’ Party (PT), would win in the first round with 36% of voter support, followed by Silva with 27% and Aecio Neves, of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), with 15%, according to a Vox Populi poll released on Monday (September 15).

A poll conducted last week by Vox Populi polling firm produced the same results for Rousseff and Neves while voter support for the environmentalist Silva was one point more at 28%.

Monday’s survey results showed a slight decrease for Silva, a former environment minister, who enjoyed a dramatic rise in the polls last month after being announced as the Brazilian Socialist Party’s replacement candidate for Eduardo Campos, a former governor of Pernambuco, who died in a plane crash on August 13.

COMMENT: Surprisingly, in a likely second-round runoff in case none of the candidates secure half plus one of the valid votes or more than all his/her rivals together, Silva would win with 42% of the votes, against 41% for Rousseff, the same difference as the poll released last week.

In the event that the second round would be decided between Rousseff and Neves, the poll shows that the current head of state would win with 47% of the votes against the social democratic Neves with 36%.

In the earlier poll, Rousseff got 44% of voter support and Neves 36%.

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2%, surveyed 2,000 voters on Saturday and Sunday (September 13-14).

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