Thursday, October 23, 2014

Brazil: Factoring in Polling 2% Error Margin, Race Between Rousseff, Neves Still Very Close

According to The Latin American Tribune, the head of state and candidate of the ruling Workers Party was supported by 47% of voters surveyed, compared to 43% for the senator from the Brazilian Social Democratic Party, according to a poll conducted by Datafolha released on October 22.

That puts Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, who is running for reelection, is three percentage points ahead of opposition candidate Aecio Neves in the latest voter intention poll conducted in the week before the runoff and released on Wednesday.

Despite the president’s advantage in the new survey, the two candidates remain technically tied four days before the runoff election due to the survey’s 2% error margin.

COMMENT: The new survey, however, confirms the three earlier polls released on Monday that showed Rousseff taking the lead against Neves for the first time during the period after the October 5 first electoral round, in which the president had garnered a plurality.

The new survey was conducted among 4,355 people on Tuesday (October 21).

According to Datafolha, 6% of those surveyed said they intend to cast blank or invalid ballots and 4% said they were undecided.

Considering only those respondents who said they would cast valid votes, Rousseff received the support of 52% compared with 48% for Neves, the same percentages revealed in the poll on Monday, which also showed the pair to be in a statistical tie.

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