Sunday, October 26, 2014

Brazil: Latest Polls Have Rousseff, Neves in a Technical "Dead-Heat"

According to The Latin American Tribune, Brazilian opposition candidate Aecio Neves leads incumbent Dilma Rosseff by percentage points, though the two are “technically tied” as they approach Sunday’s presidential runoff, according to a new survey.

The poll, released Saturday (October 25), was taken by MDA for the National Transport Confederation (CNT) and gives Neves 50.3% of valid votes, compared with 49.7% for Rousseff.

The survey, captured October 23-24 from a sample of 2,002 respondents in 137 municipalities, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2%, for which reason MDA says the two candidates are in a “technical tie.”

The result reflects Neves’ progress in the electoral race and the president’s slide, since in the last MDA study the head of state had 50.5% of valid votes--which exclude those of voters who mark their choice as “neither” or leave it blank – while Neves had 49.5%.

According to the CNT, the favorable results for the candidate of the centrist Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB) could have been attributed to Neves’ performance in the two candidates’ last televised debate.

COMMENT: Without question, Both the President and Neves will be glued to their TVs as the returns come in.

With the polling so very up-in-the-air, neither candidate should prepare a conciliatory statement so as to not be caught flat-footed.

Two surveys published this week by Datafolha and Ibope, the two most trusted opinion polls in the country, showed Rousseff with an advantage of between 6 and 8 percentage points over Neves.

The two polling agencies are expected to publish updated survey results Saturday night (October 25).

In the first round of voting on October 5, the leader of the center-left Workers Party won with 41.5% of the vote, while the social democratic senator took 33.5%.

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